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Publication, Part of

Autism Statistics, April 2024 to March 2025

Experimental statistics, Official statistics in development

Current Chapter

Limitations of the statistics and interpretation issues


Sub-ICB, ICB and Region breakdowns

We have identified an issue with the sub-ICB, ICB and Region breakdowns affecting all financial years up to and including April 2023 to March 2024.  This issue means the figures in the "Unknown" group are much higher than they should be.

All affected csv files have been removed from this publication whilst we investigate the issue.

Sub-ICB, ICB and Region breakdowns are available for April 2024 to March 2025.

NHS England apologises for any inconvenience.

15 May 2025 09:30 AM

Psych UK Limited data submission February 2025

The Psych UK Limited (DQT) provider has submitted a single data submission for February 2025, this has led to a peak in the number of open referrals for patients of all ages (ASD16, ASD16a and data quality metric ASD11) and for patients aged 18 years and over (ASD16d, ASD16e and data quality metric ASD11b) at England level. There is then a following drop in March 2025 as no data has been submitted in this month for this provider. Our methodology to calculate the number of open referrals each month relies on a record for each referral being flowed in the month.  

The majority of the other metrics, including the number of new referrals (ASD12, ASD12a and ASD12b) are calculated using the latest submitted data which means that the Psych UK figures for previous months are included in the England level figures.

15 May 2025 09:30 AM

Mental Health Services Dataset (MHSDS) Version 6

The April 2024 to March 2025 reporting period figures are the fourth to be published using MHSDS v6. The implementation of MHSDS v6 includes a fundamental restructuring of the recording of key areas, although none that impact the Autism Waiting Times publication.

Full details of the major methodological changes made for this publication can be found here.

Figures should be interpreted with caution as Data Quality issues may be present in the data used to create the measures. Please see the 'Data Quality Comments' available from here which contains details of providers who have reported Data Quality issues.

15 May 2025 09:30 AM

Page contents

Limitations of the statistics and interpretation issues

What the data can tell you

These measures contribute to a picture of overall waiting times for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnostic pathways within mental health services. These waiting times are for those referred for suspected autism to their first attended care contact.

What the data cannot tell you

There are known data quality limitations with respect to the completeness of care contacts and specific information related to these, such as the specific team that referred the patient or the presence of a formal diagnosis. For these reasons, these statistics do not yet represent a complete picture of autism diagnostic pathways.

For any referrals not having a first care contact it is not possible to fully determine how long such referrals have been waiting. This is because the first contact may have taken place in a yet to be submitted reporting period.

What the data can and cannot tell you is laid out in more detail below.

Autism service providers

Work to determine which provider organisations should be submitting data for people with autism is ongoing and as such a finalised list of in-scope providers is not yet available. In the absence of an in-scope list of autism service providers, we are unable to state how many of the organisations that have submitted data to MHSDS should have submitted autism data.

We are also unable to determine the volume of referrals or diagnoses for autism in child development services. These services are out of scope of the MHSDS and as such their data is unavailable to us. It is important to note that the majority of children assessed for autism in the United Kingdom are seen in these out of scope services. This will mean our figures will underestimate prevalence and the associated impact on health services.

Submitting autism data

The submission of autism data can be complex as the process of diagnosing an individual person involves multiple multi-disciplinary teams and can take time to agree a diagnosis of autism. As a result of this, the patient journey can be difficult to accurately represent in the Mental Health Services Data Set.

Further complexity can arise when some patients have more than one health condition and can be assessed for different conditions under the same referral. This is then also difficult to record and measure over time and may result in data submission issues.

Autism waiting time information relies on submitters providing referral, care contact and diagnosis information in a timely manner; ideally this would be by the time the submission window closes for each reporting period. If a provider submits any activity data (referral or diagnosis information) related to the reporting period outside of the submission window, then these are accepted into the dataset if the referral is still open but may not feature in official statistics reports, as official statistics are taken at specific intervals. Care contact information cannot be updated retrospectively for any open referrals due to the limitations of the dataset version and the requirements of submitters to send this information promptly. As a result of this, there are records with a missing care contact date and so waiting times between referral and first care contact cannot be derived for some patients within the forward model.

A missing care contact date can mean one of three things:

1. A care contact/first appointment occurred but was not submitted before the submission window closed
2. The person is in fact still waiting for a first appointment
3. The referral was discharged without a first appointment having taken place

It is not possible to discern the underlying reason from the dataset currently

Impact of introducing 'suspected autism' as a primary reason for referral

Until 1 April 2018, there was no way to select ‘suspected autism’ (referral code 25) as a primary reason for referral. Instead it was combined within a broader category with various other health conditions under ‘neurodevelopmental conditions’ (referral code 24).

Even from 1 April 2018, some submitters may still be submitting autism referrals as referral code 24 if they are not aware of the new referral reason explicitly for ‘suspected autism’.

As we are unable to identify these as suspected autism records, we are unable to use these records for waiting times between referral and first care contact within the forward model.


Review

The statistics presented in this publication are currently designated as Experimental Statistics and as such remain under constant review, although major changes to methodologies are made between reporting years in order to preserve time-series. 

The Mental Health Analysis team welcomes any comments or feedback on the publication so please send any such communications to [email protected]  with ‘Autism Waiting Time Statistics’ in the subject field.


Last edited: 15 May 2025 9:40 am