Publication, Part of National Diabetes Audit, Type 1 Diabetes
National Diabetes Audit, 2020-21, Type 1 Diabetes
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16 June 2022 09:30 AM
Additional information
Definitions
Statistical terms
Where a result is flagged as significant at 0.05 level, there is only a 5% probability that the result is due to chance.
Logistic regression is used to examine the relationship between an outcome (e.g. HbA1c ≤ 58 mmol/mol) and related variables (e.g. insulin treatment regimen). Backwards elimination is used to remove variables found not to be significant at 0.05 level, producing a final model that includes variables with significant associations only.
2 outputs are particularly useful when interpreting the results of a logistic regression model:
- The c-statistic can be used to assess the goodness of fit, with values ranging from 0.5 to 1.0. A value of 0.5 indicates that the model is no better than chance at making a prediction of membership in a group and a value of 1.0 indicates that the model perfectly identifies those within a group and those not. Models are typically considered reasonable when the c-statistic is higher than 0.7 and strong when the c-statistic exceeds 0.8 (Hosmer and Lemeshow, 2000*).
- Odds ratios (OR) illustrate how strongly a particular value of a variable is associated with the outcome. The further from 1 the ratio is (either above or below), the stronger the association between it and the outcome. For example, an odds ratio of 0.764 would suggest a stronger association than an odds ratio of 0.830. An odds ratio of 1 would show that the variable value has no bearing on how likely the outcome is.
The degree of uncertainty inherent in the odds ratio is described by the confidence interval. The wider the confidence interval, the less certainty there is in the odds ratio. If the confidence intervals are either side of 1 (the line of no effect) this indicates that the value taken by the variable (e.g. female) has no bearing on how likely the outcome is (e.g. HbA1c ≤ 58 mmol/mol). Where the confidence interval approaches this indicates that the association with the outcome may be weak. Odds ratios can be displayed on a forest plot (see example forest plot right).
Modelling – interpreting a funnel plot
Adjusting for each service’s unique patient casemix allows fairer comparisons between services.
Statistical models for outcomes were built. The models were used to estimate the number of events expected to occur at each CCG/LHB. The expected figures were then compared with the observed number of events, to produce a standardised ratio (SR).
If more patients had the event than expected the SR is greater than 100 and if there were fewer than expected the SR is less than 100. Deviation from 100 does not necessarily mean that an organisation is performing better or worse than expected. Instead, control limits (2 and 3 standard deviations (SD)) are used to assess whether the SR for an organisation is within an expected range or not. Results are displayed on a funnel plot.
Figure 22: Example funnel plot
Notes and Additional Information
Suppression:
Prepared in collaboration with:

The National Diabetes Audit (NDA) is commissioned by the Healthcare Quality Improvement Partnership (HQIP) as part of the National Clinical Audit and Patient Outcomes Programme (NCAPOP). HQIP is led by a consortium of the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges, the Royal College of Nursing, and National Voices. Its aim is to promote quality improvement in patient outcomes, and in particular, to increase the impact that clinical audit, outcome review programmes and registries have on healthcare quality in England and Wales. HQIP holds the contract to commission, manage, and develop the National Clinical Audit and Patient Outcomes Programme (NCAPOP), comprising around 40 projects covering care provided to people with a wide range of medical, surgical and mental health conditions. The programme is funded by NHS England, the Welsh Government and, with some individual projects, other devolved administrations and crown dependencies.
NHS Digital is the trading name for the Health and Social Care Information Centre (HSCIC). NHS Digital managed the publication of the annual report.

Diabetes UK is the charity leading the fight against the most devastating and fastest growing health crisis of our time, creating a world where diabetes can do no harm.
National Diabetes Audit, 2020-21 Type 1 Diabetes
Published by NHS Digital Part of the Government Statistical Service
Last edited: 3 October 2024 8:13 am